Sous pression en raison de la remontée des taux, le cours de l’or revient tester un support majeur à 1764$. L’évolution des taux sera cruciale pour le cours de l’or.
The gold price under pressure with the rise in interest rates
The downward pressure on the price of gold has increased in recent sessions. After having benefited for a long time from the fall in real bond yields in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the price of gold and precious metals have now been penalized by the rise in bond yields since August 2020.
The improving global economic outlook is allowing bond yields to rise, with the 10-year US 10-year yield reaching its highest level since March last year at 1.33% yesterday. The inflation outlook is also rising, so real yields, i.e. adjusted for the inflation outlook, are failing to rebound.
However, investors know that the inflation outlook is limited, as the Fed will reduce inflationary pressures if they become too high. As a result, there is much more room for U.S. bond yields to rise than there is for the inflation outlook.
The spread between the 10-year U.S. yield and the 10-year U.S. inflation outlook has been fluctuating between -100bps and -70bps since the summer of 2020, but could rise higher if the economic outlook continues to improve in the coming months.
The gold price is therefore suffering in the short term from the rebound in US 10-year real yields, but could fall further if the rebound continues at a much higher level. By 2013, real yields had returned to positive territory in very little time after consolidating between -100 bps and -50 bps for almost a year.
Gold price returns to test its November low of $1764
In terms of technical analysis, the gold price is currently back on a major support at $1764 on which it rebounded in November 2020. It could bounce back on this support in the short term if real yields were to decline, but the underlying outlook remains bearish as gold is trading in its downtrend channel and below its 200-day moving average.
To position itself for sale in the direction of this trend, it will be preferable to wait for a pullback below the support at $1764, or a rebound below a major resistance, such as the January high at $1875 or the upper bound of the channel.
In the event of a pullback below $1764, the outlook would become bearish until the spring 2020 support at $1670. The evolution of gold will depend on the evolution of real rates.
Source IG
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